Step 8 · Diagnostic run #1
Diagnosis result
A finalised, immutable run snapshot.
Mode: Standard ·
pack mtis_met_tax_cards v0.1.0 (ai_generated_draft) ·
2026-06-20 13:29
i
Confidence — evidence support for this mode. This is the strength of the entered evidence in support of this failure mode. It is NOT a probability, a statistical likelihood, or a finding of fact.
Candidate failure modes
Thermal-mechanical fatigue
Supporting evidence present
- Network or surface cracks (C10)
- crack orientation related to thermal stress (C9, C13)
- service temperature cycles (C5)
Evidence missing
- oxide-filled cracks (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
- Operating-condition review
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.8 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Fretting fatigue cracking
Supporting evidence present
- Dark fretting debris (C12)
- contact scar (C12)
- crack at contact edge (C9, C12, C13)
Evidence missing
- multiple shallow origins (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.8 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Semi-elliptical surface origin (C9, C10)
- crack front marks (C9, C10, C13)
Evidence missing
- final overload opposite origin (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.75 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Intergranular/transgranular cracking (C13)
- blue/green corrosion products possible (C11)
Evidence missing
- residual stress source (Service environment)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Service-environment chemistry review or sampling
- SEM fractography
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Environment chemistry review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.75 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Intergranular cracking in sensitised HAZ/base metal (C13)
- refinery shutdown history (C8)
Evidence missing
- sulphide/acid conditions (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- SEM fractography
- Macro / visual examination
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.75 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Longitudinal score marks (C10)
- smeared/overheated surfaces (C10)
Evidence missing
- rapid damage onset (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.75 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Severe torn surfaces (C10)
- seizure marks (C10)
- high friction history (C8)
Evidence missing
- transfer lumps (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.7333 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Internal fish-eye origin (C9)
- little surface initiation (C10)
Evidence missing
- fine granular area (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.6667 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Creep crack initiation/growth
Supporting evidence present
- Intergranular cracking (C13)
- time-dependent crack extension (C9, C13)
Evidence missing
- creep cavities ahead of crack (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- SEM fractography
- Metallography
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.6667 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Intergranular or brittle crack path (C9, C13)
- rapid cracking during contact (C12, C13)
Evidence missing
- liquid metal residue (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.6667 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Multiple crack origins (C9, C13)
- plastic strain marks (C10)
- transgranular cracking (C13)
- rapid crack growth after cyclic plasticity (C9, C13)
Evidence missing
No critical gaps.
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
Contradicting: Very high cycle count with elastic stress only
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=1.0 · K=1.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Surface material loss, scoring, grooves, galling or polishing at contact surfaces (C12)
- Wear debris in lubricant or assembly (C12)
- Lubrication deficiency (starvation, degradation, wrong lubricant, dry running) (C8)
Evidence missing
- Dimensional loss at contact surfaces beyond tolerance (Dimensional measurements)
- Abrasive contamination present (sand, dust, grit) (Service environment)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Dimensional / wall-thickness survey
- Service-environment chemistry review or sampling
- Surface examination
- Dimensional survey
- Lubricant/debris analysis
- Hardness
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.65 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Dark oxide debris (C12)
- polished/rough contact scar (C12)
Evidence missing
- shallow pits (Macro / visual examination)
- stick-slip boundary (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Loading / stress review
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.6 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Plating-induced hydrogen embrittlement
Supporting evidence present
- Delayed brittle fracture after plating (C9, C10)
- intergranular/quasi-cleavage features (C10)
- high hardness (C14)
- plating history (C6, C8)
Evidence missing
- Delayed brittle fracture after plating (Coating / protection records)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Coating / protection system review
- Coating system review
- SEM fractography
- Hardness survey
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=1.0 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Spiral fracture (C9, C10)
- dimpled shear features (C10)
Evidence missing
- shear lips (Macro / visual examination)
- plastic twisting (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5333 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
High-temperature hydrogen attack
Supporting evidence present
- Decarburised zones (C9)
- intergranular cracking/blisters (C13)
Evidence missing
- methane fissures (Macro / visual examination)
- loss of strength (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Metallography
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5333 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Alpha-prime embrittlement
Supporting evidence present
- Hardness/toughness change (C14)
- brittle fracture (C9, C10)
- thermal exposure record (C6)
Evidence missing
- Hardness/toughness change (Hardness)
- phase decomposition evidence (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Hardness survey across the section
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Hardness survey
- Macro / visual examination
- Operating-condition review
- Metallography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.8 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Crack at weld toe/root (C9, C13)
- beach marks (C10)
Evidence missing
- Crack at weld toe/root (Welding records)
- lack-of-fusion or undercut as initiator (Welding records)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Welding record review
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.75 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Crack network in coating (C9, C13)
- substrate corrosion at cracks (C11)
Evidence missing
- Crack network in coating (Coating / protection records)
- thermal mismatch pattern (Operating conditions)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Coating / protection system review
- Operating-condition data review
- Coating system review
- Macro / visual examination
- Operating-condition review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.75 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Incremental dimensional growth (C12)
- local thinning (C11)
Evidence missing
- ovalisation (Macro / visual examination)
- bulging (Macro / visual examination)
- fatigue may follow (Loading & stress)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Dimensional / thickness survey
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4444 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Gross deformation before rupture (C9)
Evidence missing
- hinge lines (Macro / visual examination)
- collapse shape consistent with limit load (Loading & stress)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Intergranular brittle fracture
Supporting evidence present
- Faceted grain-boundary surface (C10)
Evidence missing
- rock-candy morphology (Macro / visual examination)
- grain-boundary precipitates or cavities (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- SEM fractography
- Macro / visual examination
- Metallography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Helical or 45-degree crack path (C9, C13)
Evidence missing
- shear-mode initiation (Macro / visual examination)
- final torsional overload zone (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Branched transgranular cracks in austenitic stainless steels (C13)
Evidence missing
- chloride deposits (Corrosion products / deposits)
- heat-transfer concentration sites (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Metallography
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Droplet impingement erosion
Supporting evidence present
Evidence missing
- leading-edge roughening (Macro / visual examination)
- directional erosion pattern (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Wear scar with corrosion products (C11)
Evidence missing
- repassivation damage (Macro / visual examination)
- accelerated loss versus wear/corrosion alone (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Pitting-like hot corrosion (C11)
Evidence missing
- sulphate deposits (Corrosion products / deposits)
- attack at temperature/deposit-prone zones (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Nitridation / chlorination
Supporting evidence present
- Nitride/halide products (C11)
Evidence missing
- internal attack (Macro / visual examination)
- embrittlement or accelerated wastage (Dimensional measurements)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Dimensional / wall-thickness survey
- Macro / visual examination
- Dimensional / thickness survey
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4167 · K=1.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Corrosion (general/pitting/crevice)
Supporting evidence present
- General wall thinning or measurable metal loss (C11)
- Pitting or crevice attack on surfaces (C11)
Evidence missing
- Corrosive service environment (chlorides, acids, moisture, seawater) (Service environment)
- Corrosion products/deposits present (rust, scale, oxide) (Corrosion products / deposits)
- Protective coating or cathodic protection breakdown (Coating / protection records)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Service-environment chemistry review or sampling
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Coating / protection system review
- Corrosion product analysis
- Dimensional/thickness survey
- Environment chemistry
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4762 · K=0.6667 · C=0.0 · M=0.3333 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Thinning/grooving at flow changes (C11)
- particle impact features (C7, C10)
- corrosion products if synergistic (C11)
Evidence missing
No critical gaps.
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Dimensional / thickness survey
- Loading / stress review
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
Contradicting: Stagnant corrosion under deposit without erosive flow
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=1.0 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Interdendritic crack surfaces (C9, C10, C13)
- oxidised crack surfaces (C9, C10, C13)
- location at constrained sections (C9)
Evidence missing
No critical gaps.
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: Service fatigue crack with beach marks
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=1.0 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- cup-and-cone fracture association (C9, C10)
- dimples if fractured (C10)
Evidence missing
- Local area reduction (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Resonance-induced fatigue
Supporting evidence present
- fatigue beach marks (C10)
- service vibration history (C5, C7, C8)
Evidence missing
- Multiple origins at high-stress points (Loading & stress)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Loading / stress review
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- crack orientation stress-related (C9, C13)
- sour-service history (C8)
Evidence missing
- Array of small cracks linking through wall (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
- Environment chemistry review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- brittle fracture tendency (C9, C10)
- strain-age thermal history (C8)
Evidence missing
- Increased yield/ductility loss (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- Operating-condition review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Beach marks (crack arrest lines) on fracture surface (C10)
- Cyclic/vibratory/rotating service loading (C7)
Evidence missing
- Fatigue striations visible under SEM (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- Ratchet marks indicating multiple initiation sites (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- Initiation at stress concentration (fillet, keyway, thread, hole, weld toe, notch) (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography
- Macro examination of origin
- Stress analysis
- Hardness
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=0.6667 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- corrosion products (C11)
- predictable corrosion allowance consumption (C11)
Evidence missing
- Relatively even wall loss (Dimensional measurements)
- thickness reduction (Dimensional measurements)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Dimensional / wall-thickness survey
- Dimensional / thickness survey
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4667 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- cutting/ploughing marks (C10)
- wear debris (C12)
Evidence missing
- Parallel grooves (Macro / visual examination)
- directionality (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4667 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Cracks at sharp corners/section changes (C10)
- high hardness (C14)
- no service crack-growth marks (C5, C10)
Evidence missing
- brittle appearance (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- Hardness survey
- Service-history review
Contradicting: Fatigue striations from service cycles
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.7333 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Corrosion-fatigue cracking
Supporting evidence present
- Fatigue features with corrosion products (C10, C11)
Evidence missing
- multiple origins at pits (Macro / visual examination)
- reduced life versus air (Macro / visual examination)
- branching may occur (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: Dry inert service
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=1.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Dynamic overload fracture
Supporting evidence present
- Deformation pattern aligned with impact (C9)
- sudden overload features (C10)
Evidence missing
- local denting (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: Service crack-growth evidence predating the impact
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.6667 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Intergranular brittle fracture (C9, C10)
- service heat-treatment history (C5, C8)
Evidence missing
- upward shift in transition temperature (Operating conditions)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Operating-condition data review
- SEM fractography
- Operating-condition review
- Service-history review
Contradicting: Ductile fracture; no embrittling thermal history
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.6667 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- interfacial fracture (C9, C10)
- corrosion products under coating (C11)
- poor surface profile/contamination (C10)
Evidence missing
- Lifted coating (Coating / protection records)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Coating / protection system review
- Coating system review
- Macro / visual examination
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.6667 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- hardness gradient (C14)
- surface cracks (C10)
Evidence missing
- Temper colour (Macro / visual examination)
- retempered/rehardened layer (Hardness)
- residual stress (Loading & stress)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Hardness survey across the section
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination
- Hardness survey
- Loading / stress review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3889 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Centreline/interdendritic weld crack (C9, C13)
- oxidised/segregated surfaces (C10)
- no service striations (C5)
Evidence missing
- Centreline/interdendritic weld crack (Welding records)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Welding record review
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Contradicting: Hydrogen cold crack in HAZ after cooling
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=1.0 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- distortion without cracking (C13)
- thermal gradients in service history (C5)
Evidence missing
- Repeatable bowing with temperature (Operating conditions)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Operating-condition data review
- Operating-condition review
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Dimpled (microvoid coalescence) fracture surface under SEM; cup-and-cone profile (C10)
- Documented single overload, impact or pressure surge event (C7)
Evidence missing
- Gross plastic deformation, necking, bending or bulging adjacent to fracture (Macro / visual examination)
- Shear lips at fracture edges; fracture at ~45 degrees to load (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- Inclusions or second-phase particles at the bases of dimples (microvoid nucleation sites) under SEM (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Visual/macro
- SEM fractography
- Tensile test
Contradicting: Beach marks or fatigue striations present
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.381 · K=0.5 · C=0.5556 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- orientation parallel to rolling direction (C6)
- inclusion-lined surfaces (C10)
Evidence missing
- Planar internal indication (Non-destructive testing)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Non-destructive testing (UT / RT / MPI / PT)
- Non-destructive testing
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Quench/heat-treatment distortion
Supporting evidence present
- out-of-tolerance dimension (C12)
- hardness/microstructure gradients (C14)
Evidence missing
- Warping (Macro / visual examination)
- bowing (Macro / visual examination)
- twist (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- Metallography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
Evidence missing
- Planar crack growth normal to axial stress (Loading & stress)
- final overload (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review
- SEM fractography
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Primary creep / secondary creep deformation
Supporting evidence present
Evidence missing
- Permanent elongation/sagging/bulging (Macro / visual examination)
- grain-boundary cavities may begin (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Macro / visual examination
- Metallography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- sharp boundary between exposed (C10)
Evidence missing
- Attack under gasket/deposit/lap joint (Corrosion products / deposits)
- crevice area (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Chromium carbide sensitisation
Supporting evidence present
- intergranular corrosion/SCC (C11)
Evidence missing
- Grain-boundary carbide/depleted zones (Microscopy / metallography)
- HAZ association (Welding records)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Welding record review
- Metallography
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Subsurface rolling-contact fatigue
Supporting evidence present
- Subsurface origin (C9)
- inclusion-associated crack (C9, C13)
Evidence missing
- spall (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- butterfly morphology (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
Suggested test to raise certainty
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Contradicting: Surface corrosion/wear origin only
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5333 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Brittle fracture (C9, C10)
- hardness changes (C14)
Evidence missing
- reduced toughness (Macro / visual examination)
- metallographic sigma phase (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Macro / visual examination
- Metallography
- Hardness survey
Contradicting: No sigma phase in microstructure; ductile fracture
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5333 · K=1.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- high hardness/strength (C14)
- often little corrosion loss (C11)
Evidence missing
- Brittle cracks (Macro / visual examination)
- H2S/sour-service exposure (Service environment)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Service-environment chemistry review or sampling
- Macro / visual examination
- Hardness survey
- Environment chemistry review
Contradicting: low-strength qualified material
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4667 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Hydrogen source: plating, pickling, cathodic protection, H2S/sour service (C6)
Evidence missing
- Hydrogen source: plating, pickling, cathodic protection, H2S/sour service (Service environment)
- High-strength/high-hardness steel (susceptible grade) (Material specification)
- Intergranular or quasi-cleavage fracture morphology (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- Delayed failure under static load (hours–weeks after installation) (Service history)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Service-environment chemistry review or sampling
- Material specification & certification review
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Service-history record review
- Fractography (intergranular)
- Hardness
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2381 · K=0.5 · C=0.0 · M=0.5 · B=1.0
Surface-initiated rolling-contact fatigue
Supporting evidence present
Evidence missing
- Micropitting (Macro / visual examination)
- grey staining (Macro / visual examination)
- shallow spalls (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2667 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- location tied to couple (C9)
Evidence missing
- Preferential attack of one metal near joint/contact (Loading & stress)
- noble metal protected (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.25 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- little corrosion product initially (C11)
Evidence missing
- Honeycomb/pitted roughness (Macro / visual examination)
- damage at low-pressure/high turbulence zones (Loading & stress)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.25 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
Evidence missing
- Pits/grooves filled with carbonaceous dust (Macro / visual examination)
- rapid local wastage (Dimensional measurements)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Dimensional / wall-thickness survey
- Macro / visual examination
- Dimensional / thickness survey
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.25 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- exposed substrate hot corrosion/oxidation (C11)
Evidence missing
- Spalled scale patches (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- repeated scale layers (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- SEM fractography
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.25 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- intergranular cracking (C13)
Evidence missing
- Creep cavities (Microscopy / metallography)
- necking or bulging (Macro / visual examination)
- oxide-filled cracks (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Metallography
- SEM fractography
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2222 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- wall thinning if corrosion-assisted (C11)
Evidence missing
- Fish-mouth opening (Macro / visual examination)
- ductile tearing (Macro / visual examination)
- hoop-stress orientation (Loading & stress)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
- Dimensional / thickness survey
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Creep-fatigue interaction
Supporting evidence present
- cavities plus fatigue features (C10)
Evidence missing
- Mixed transgranular/intergranular cracking (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- oxide-filled cracks (Corrosion products / deposits)
- dwell sensitivity (Service history)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Service-history record review
- SEM fractography
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Service-history review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- little visible cracking (C13)
Evidence missing
- Loss of bolt preload (Loading & stress)
- gasket leakage (Macro / visual examination)
- relaxed spring force (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- chemistry gradient evidence (C14)
Evidence missing
- Attack under scale/sludge/deposit (Corrosion products / deposits)
- tubercles (Corrosion products / deposits)
- pit clusters (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
- Chemical composition analysis
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
High-temperature sulfidation
Supporting evidence present
- sulphur-rich corrosion products (C11)
Evidence missing
- Sulphide scale (Corrosion products / deposits)
- metal loss (Dimensional measurements)
- carburisation/sulfidation interactions possible (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Dimensional / wall-thickness survey
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Dimensional / thickness survey
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Graphitisation of carbon steel
Supporting evidence present
- service temperature history (C5, C8)
Evidence missing
- Graphite nodules/planes (Microscopy / metallography)
- reduced strength (Macro / visual examination)
- intergranular/planar weakness (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Metallography
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- fluid/corrosion products beneath (C11)
Evidence missing
- Dome-shaped blisters (Coating / protection records)
- loss of adhesion (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Coating / protection system review
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Coating system review
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.3333 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Stress corrosion cracking
Supporting evidence present
- Branched cracking in metallographic section (C13)
Evidence missing
- Susceptible alloy–environment combination present (Service environment)
- Sustained static tensile stress incl. residual stress (welding, forming) (Loading & stress)
- Inter- or transgranular cracking with little plastic deformation (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Service-environment chemistry review or sampling
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Metallography (branching)
- SEM
- Environment chemistry
Contradicting: Fully ductile dimpled fracture
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2381 · K=0.5 · C=0.4444 · M=0.5 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- Chevron (herringbone) marks pointing back to origin (C10)
- Impact or high strain-rate loading (C7)
Evidence missing
- Little or no plastic deformation; flat fracture normal to stress (Macro / visual examination)
- Bright granular/crystalline or cleavage fracture surface (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- Low service/ambient temperature at failure (Operating conditions)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Operating-condition data review
- Charpy impact
- SEM fractography
- Hardness
Contradicting: Dimpled ductile fracture surface
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2917 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- impact craters/cutting lips (C7)
- thinning at elbows/nozzles (C11)
Evidence missing
- Directional wastage (Dimensional measurements)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Dimensional / wall-thickness survey
- Dimensional / thickness survey
- Loading / stress review
Contradicting: Electrochemical corrosion without particle impact pattern
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- reduced hardness/strength (C14)
- creep deformation association (C9)
Evidence missing
- Spheroidised carbides (Microscopy / metallography)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Metallography
- Hardness survey
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: As-manufactured microstructure; hardness within specification
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.5833 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- boiler/alkali service history (C5)
Evidence missing
- Intergranular or branched cracks near caustic concentration areas (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- deposits (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- SEM fractography
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Service-history review
Contradicting: fatigue-only crack growth
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.25 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- fatigue/fracture origin at root (C9, C10)
Evidence missing
- Root planar indication (Non-destructive testing)
- notch-like root defect (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Non-destructive testing (UT / RT / MPI / PT)
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Non-destructive testing
- Macro / visual examination
- Loading / stress review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.25 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- increased hardness (C14)
- dimensional/microstructural changes (C12)
Evidence missing
- Carbide networks (Microscopy / metallography)
- reduced ductility (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Metallographic sectioning and microscopy
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Metallography
- Hardness survey
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: Surface decarburisation or general oxidation only
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.4667 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- subsurface or surface-initiated crack networks (C9, C13)
Evidence missing
- Pitting (Macro / visual examination)
- spalling (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
- butterfly cracks (Fracture-surface examination (fractography))
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- SEM fractography of the fracture surface
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Contradicting: corrosion pits alone
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- hydrogen/sour/corrosion history (C8, C11)
Evidence missing
- Raised blisters (Coating / protection records)
- internal laminations (Macro / visual examination)
- step cracks (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Coating / protection system review
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Coating system review
- Macro / visual examination
- Environment chemistry review
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2 · K=0.0 · C=0.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- often little fracture at initiation (C9, C10)
Evidence missing
- Global or local out-of-plane deformation (Macro / visual examination)
- wrinkles (Macro / visual examination)
- lobes (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- Manufacturing record review
Contradicting: tensile fracture as primary event
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.1667 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- no progressive beach marks (C10)
Evidence missing
- Permanent bend (Macro / visual examination)
- necking (Macro / visual examination)
- local plastic flow (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
- SEM fractography
Contradicting: No permanent dimensional change
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.1429 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
- fatigue crack from lap (C9, C13)
Evidence missing
- Folded oxide-containing seam (Corrosion products / deposits)
- surface-breaking linear indication (Non-destructive testing)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Non-destructive testing (UT / RT / MPI / PT)
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Non-destructive testing
- Loading / stress review
Contradicting: Open service crack with no oxide/fold interface
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.25 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Irradiation embrittlement / swelling
Supporting evidence present
- service dose record (C5, C6)
Evidence missing
- Toughness shift (Macro / visual examination)
- hardening (Hardness)
- swelling (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Hardness survey across the section
- Macro / visual examination
- Hardness survey
- Metallography
- Service-history review
Contradicting: No radiation service or dose record
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.1667 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Hydrogen-assisted cold cracking
Supporting evidence present
Evidence missing
- HAZ or weld toe/root cracks (Welding records)
- delayed occurrence (Service history)
- hydrogen source (Service environment)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Welding record review
- Service-history record review
- Service-environment chemistry review or sampling
- Hardness survey
- Service-history review
- Environment chemistry review
Contradicting: Solidification crack morphology during hot stage; no hardness/hydrogen risk
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.2222 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
None.
Evidence missing
- Indentations matching rolling elements or contact asperities (Loading & stress)
- spacing related to geometry (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Loading / stress review or analysis
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Loading / stress review
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: Fretting marks without plastic indentation
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.0 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
None.
Evidence missing
- Stretched zone (Macro / visual examination)
- stable tearing region (Macro / visual examination)
- final overload zone (Macro / visual examination)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: No pre-existing crack; all fracture surface instantaneous
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.0 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Atmospheric rusting/corrosion
Supporting evidence present
None.
Evidence missing
- Rust/oxide scale (Corrosion products / deposits)
- preferential attack at water traps (Macro / visual examination)
- chloride/sulphur deposits (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
- Coating system review
Contradicting: Submerged-only corrosion or high-temperature dry oxidation only
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.0 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Hydrogen-induced cracking
Supporting evidence present
None.
Evidence missing
- Stepwise internal cracks parallel to surface/rolling plane (Macro / visual examination)
- blister association (Coating / protection records)
- sulphide exposure (Corrosion products / deposits)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Coating / protection system review
- Corrosion-product / deposit analysis (EDS / XRD)
- Macro / visual examination
- Coating system review
- Corrosion-product analysis (EDS/XRD)
Contradicting: no internal cracking
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.0 · K=0.0 · C=0.5 · M=0.0 · B=1.0
Supporting evidence present
None.
Evidence missing
- Planar weld indication (Non-destructive testing)
- unfused interface (Macro / visual examination)
- crack/fatigue origin at weld sidewall or between passes (Welding records)
Suggested test to raise certainty
- Non-destructive testing (UT / RT / MPI / PT)
- Macro / visual examination of the fracture and component
- Welding record review
- Non-destructive testing
- Macro / visual examination
Contradicting: Service crack through fully fused material
Explain this score (raw S / K / C / M / B)
S=0.0 · K=0.0 · C=1.0 · M=1.0 · B=1.0
Candidate root causes
| Root cause | Confidence | Band | Via mechanism | Rationale |
| Design issue | 64.0/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-FAT-006 | Typical for fatigue and cyclic cracking |
| Design issue | 64.0/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-FAT-010 | Typical for fatigue and cyclic cracking |
| Design issue | 60.0/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-FAT-003 | Typical for fatigue and cyclic cracking |
| Material selection issue | 60.0/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-EAC-004 | Typical for environmentally assisted cracking and hydrogen damage |
| Material selection issue | 60.0/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-EAC-005 | Typical for environmentally assisted cracking and hydrogen damage |
| Maintenance/inspection issue | 60.0/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-WEAR-005 | Typical for tribology / wear / erosion |
| Maintenance/inspection issue | 58.6/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-WEAR-004 | Typical for tribology / wear / erosion |
| Design issue | 53.4/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-FAT-013 | Typical for fatigue and cyclic cracking |
| Material selection issue | 53.4/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-EAC-012 | Typical for environmentally assisted cracking and hydrogen damage |
| Unexpected service environment | 52.5/100 | Moderate | MECH-FM-MET-EAC-004 | Typical for environmentally assisted cracking and hydrogen damage |